Precious metals industry service provider Heraeus finds in its latest precious metals appraisal that platinum prices may soon retreat back to average levels, with the rally having become “stretched” by the end of December.

The company reports that all the precious metals had spectacular price gains in 2025, with platinum and silver having hit new price records in December.

It explains that there was some overlap in the price drivers for gold, silver and platinum group metals (PGM) as the threat of US tariffs led to unusually large flows of metal into US vaults, which impacted on liquidity elsewhere.

“That threat still hangs over palladium and platinum with the US government’s Section 232 and Russian anti-dumping investigations yet to report after being delayed by the US government shutdown.

“Both platinum and silver were historically undervalued compared to gold early in the year and their prices have now narrowed that gap dramatically.”

Heraeus expects the platinum market to have had a deficit in 2025, which will continue to be the case this year.

The palladium and rhodium markets are, in turn, less tight than platinum.

Platinum prices closed at $2 301/oz in the week ended January 1, having risen by almost 30% in the last 30 days.

After a year of lower-than-normal South African PGM production, it does not necessarily take much buying to rally the price at a time when South African producers were closed for the holidays, which limits spot availability, Heraeus says.

Simultaneously, lease rates for silver and PGM remain elevated but are not as high as in October.

Moreover, Heraeus says platinum exchange-traded fund (ETF) holdings have increased; however, not on a scale to match the price rally – ETFs added 197 000 oz in December.  

In 2020, when the price more than doubled from its March low, ETF holdings grew by 717 000 oz.

Gold and silver ETF holdings grew by 20% in 2025, and palladium and rhodium ETF holdings rose by 50%, or 393 000 oz, and nearly 90%, or 9 300 oz, respectively.

However, Heraeus states, none of the metals’ ETF holdings are at record levels.

Speculative positioning in futures has also risen but, again, is nowhere near record levels, even with record prices, which potentially leaves room for investor interest to increase.

From a technical point of view, the platinum rally was very stretched by the end of December.

Heraeus finds that, on a daily price basis, the Relative Strength Index showed the platinum price was at its most overbought on record in December.

The platinum price was also 44.4% above its 200-day moving average on December 26. On seven prior occasions in which the price has been more than 20% above its 200-day moving average, the price then entered a correction or bear market, with declines of between 10% and 20%.

To varying degrees, the other precious metals also show the same overbought syndrome, increasing the downside risk to prices.

GOLD

Geopolitics has taken centre stage in January, lifting the gold price close to a record high, Heraeus explains. The gold price closed the week ended January 9 at $4 508/oz.

The US has pivoted to Latin America, capturing the President of Venezuela and his wife and transporting them to New York for trial and seizing tankers with Venezuelan oil. Greenland has also been put back in the spotlight on the grounds of US national security, with the US President being interested in Greenland’s critical minerals deposits.

“This has caused some consternation in Europe as Denmark is a North Atlantic Treaty Organization member, and it has complicated an already strained relationship with the US, which also has some differences from the EU in its approach to ending the Ukraine conflict,” Heraeus says.

The gold price rallied to a new record in late December before pulling back, but gold still ended the year 65% higher.

The rise in geopolitical tensions saw the price rally resume in early January but it ended just shy of a new high.

While the underlying drivers for a strong gold price seem to be intact, the price movement in 2025 was extreme and the metal is overbought so it may take some time to consolidate its gains, according to Heraeus.

SILVER

Heraeus finds that silver prices, which closed at $80.35/oz on January 9, has come under pressure in the new year following a rally to an all-time high of $84/oz late in December.

Silver achieved gains of 147% in 2025 before easing at the start of 2026 as investors took profits.

Silver ETFs have had cumulative outflows of about 13-million ounces since January 1, which reduced total holdings to 850-million ounces. Adding to headwinds, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) announced on December 30 an increase in margin requirements across the precious metals, which marked the second margin hike in a single week.

Historically, margin hikes have tended to trigger short-term price pullbacks, mainly by forcing leveraged traders to reduce positions.

During the 2011 silver rally, the CME raised margin requirements five times in nine days, and the price fell by 30% within two weeks as leveraged longs were liquidated.

Meanwhile, Heraeus says China is restricting silver exports from this year, limiting outbound shipments to a few companies. From January 1, silver export controls have been more closely aligned with those of other strategic minerals such as rare earths, antimony and tungsten. Under the new rules, only 44 companies will be authorised to export silver and obtaining approval will become more difficult.

China, which is the second-largest producer and exporter of silver, shipped more than 4 000 t in the first 11 months of 2025. The move comes as silver surged to a record price and Shanghai premiums climbed to an all-time high of $1.72 over London prices.