The International Energy Agency (IEA) has lowered its outlook for the amount of low-emissions hydrogen it expects will be produced yearly by 2030, following recent project delays and cancellations.

The low-emissions hydrogen tracked by the IEA includes green hydrogen produced using electrolysis, as well as hydrogen produced from fossil fuels but where the carbon emissions are captured.

Based on announced projects, the IEA’s ‘Global Hydrogen Review 2025’ states that there is 37-million tonnes of low-emissions hydrogen production potential by 2030, down from the 49-million tonnes potential outlined in the 2024 report.

This is the first downward revision since the inaugural 2021 edition of the review.

The IEA also cautions that not all announced low-emissions hydrogen projects will materialise.

Nevertheless, production from projects that are either operational, under construction or where a final investment decision (FID) has been made should be 4-million tonnes by 2030, which would represent a fivefold rise from 2024 levels.

The report adds that there is strong potential for a further 6-million tonnes a year of production by 2030, “if effective policies to ensure demand are implemented”.

Worldwide hydrogen demand increased by 2% last year to almost 100-million tonnes, with the vast majority of this demand met by hydrogen produced from fossil fuels, including natural gas and coal.

The production of low-emissions hydrogen grew by 10% in 2024 to about 800 000 t, or less than 1% of demand.

The review also shows that China is currently the driving force in the deployment of electrolysers to produce low-emissions hydrogen.

The Asian country accounts for 65% of global electrolyser capacity that has been installed or reached an FID, and it is home to nearly 60% of the world’s electrolyser manufacturing capacity.

“The latest data indicates that the growth of new hydrogen technologies is under pressure due to economic headwinds and policy uncertainty, but we still see strong signs that their development is moving ahead globally,” IEA executive director Fatih Birol said.