Statistics South Africa reports that mining production increased by 1.4% year-on-year in October, with the largest positive contributors having been platinum group metals (PGM), chromium ore, diamonds and coal.

These sectors grew output by 3.3%, 14%, 27.9% and 1.8%, respectively, in the month and contributed between 0.4 of a percentage point and one percentage point to the headline figure each.

On the other hand, iron-ore contracted by 6.4% and gold by 3.4%, each contributing -3.4 and -0.5 percentage points to the headline figure.

Seasonally adjusted mining production decreased by 3% in October, compared with September. This followed month-on-month changes of 4.5% in September and 3.3% in August.

For the three months ended October 31, seasonally adjusted mining production increased by 4% compared with the previous three months, with PGM again contributing 2.6 percentage points from an 8.5% increase in output, followed by iron-ore which grew by 3.1% and contributed 0.4 of a percentage point.  The largest positive contributors were:

‘Other’ metallic minerals output grew by 17% and also contributed 0.4 of a percentage point to the quarterly figures.

Mineral sales at current prices increased by 1.6% year-on-year in October. The largest positive contributors were coal, with sales having grown by 10.3% and contributing 2.5 percentage points and gold, the sales of which grew by 4.1% and contributing 0.9 of a percentage point.

‘Other metallic mineral sales grew by 28.9% and contributed 0.6 of a percentage point in the month, while chromium ore sales grew by 7.4% and contributed 0.5 of a percentage point.

Conversely, iron-ore sales dipped by 30% in October and contributed -3.1 percentage points.

Seasonally adjusted mineral sales at current prices increased by 3.7% in October compared with September. This followed month-on-month changes of 16.7% in September and -21.7% in August.

Seasonally adjusted mineral sales at current prices decreased by 7.2% in the three months ended October 31, compared with the previous three months.

COMMENTARY

Minerals Council South Africa chief economist Hugo Pienaar says there were some some specific factors in the iron-ore and manganese sectors that weighed on overall mining production in October.  

Despite the slow start to the quarter, the strong monthly production gains in August and September suggest that even if production remains at the October level in the rest of the fourth quarter, quarterly mining output (relative to the third quarter of 2024) will be higher.

Although far from robust growth, real mining production in 2024 remains on track for the best performance since 2021.

Assuming a continued absence of power cuts and sustained progress on Transnet’s rail performance, the mining industry could build on the modest recent growth in 2025.

Key risks to this outlook include global macro instability, particularly the prospect of trade tensions as Donald Trump starts a new term as US president early in the new year.